A 30-year Build-Own-Operate agreement converts the Ibeju-Lekki Corridor's 1,330 TPD of confirmed manufacturing feedstock into a net revenue-positive position for Lagos State from Year 2 — with zero government capital expenditure, structured within Nigeria's highest-incentive Free Trade Zone.
What This Means
- Carbotura proposes a 30-year Commercial Offtake Agreement (COA) under which the Lagos State Government or its designated authority delivers feedstock from the Ibeju-Lekki Corridor; Carbotura's Special Purpose Vehicle builds, owns, and operates an Advanced Circular Manufacturing (ACM) facility entirely at its own capital cost within the Lekki Free Trade Zone.
- Lagos State's sole financial commitment is the TMC Fee of $22/ton — payable only on actual feedstock delivered. There is no construction obligation, no technology obligation, no operating liability, and no minimum volume guarantee required of the state.
- Beginning 13 months after the first TMC Fee payment, Carbotura pays a Circular Royalty back to Lagos State: 120% of the corresponding TMC Fee, escalating by one percentage point per year. By Year 2, the corridor is in a net positive fiscal position. By Year 5, the Circular Royalty exceeds the TMC Fee by approximately $0.77M/year at Phase Initial scale.
- The ACM facility, co-located with the Lekki Deep Seaport and Dangote Refinery within the LFTZ, simultaneously produces graphite, graphene, ultrapure water (addressing 300M+ gallon/day Lagos water deficit), and hydrogen — creating three additional revenue streams and a direct infrastructure solution to Lagos's concurrent energy and water crises.
- The procurement decision window is defined by the Olusosun/Solous III decommissioning timeline. A Community Feasibility Study must be authorized by mid-2026 for Phase Initial to achieve Commercial Operations before the disposal capacity gap is critical.
Executive Implications
- Zero Lagos State capex means this proposal requires no budget appropriation — only a policy decision to authorize the Community Feasibility Study and initiate COA negotiation.
- The Circular Royalty begins flowing 13 months after first delivery. At Phase Initial (400 TPD), Year 2 net fiscal position is approximately +$562,000. At Phase Expanded (1,330 TPD), Year 2 net exceeds +$1.8M/year, compounding annually.
- Olusosun and Solous III are formally in 18-month decommissioning from December 2024. The LFTZ ACM site is the only proposed local alternative with confirmed NEPZA approval pathway, sovereign guarantee precedent, and zero-dependency on LAWMA replacement infrastructure being built on time.
§1 — Commercial Structure and Decision Window
§1.1 — The Commercial Offtake Agreement (COA)
The COA is a bilateral agreement between Lagos State's designated waste management authority (LAWMA or successor entity) and Carbotura's Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). Under the COA:
- Lagos State commits to: Directing a contracted volume of feedstock from the Ibeju-Lekki Corridor to the ACM facility's intake point within the LFTZ, pursuant to a feedstock delivery schedule agreed at the Community Feasibility Study stage.
- Carbotura's SPV commits to: Accepting all delivered feedstock at or above the contracted minimum; paying the TMC Fee on each tonne accepted within the payment cycle; constructing, commissioning, and operating the ACM facility at its own capital cost; paying Circular Royalties commencing 13 months after corresponding TMC Fee payments.
- Term: 30 years from Phase Initial COD. Renewable by mutual agreement.
- No take-or-pay obligation on Lagos State — the TMC Fee is only payable on actual tonnes delivered. The COA does not create a budget liability for unfulfilled volumes.
- NEPZA FTZ context: The SPV will be licensed as a Free Zone Enterprise under the NEPZA Act, entitling it to all NEPZA tax and duty exemptions. The COA commercial terms are denominated in USD for foreign exchange stability.
§1.2 — Decision Window
Phase Initial COD requires T0 + 24 months. Olusosun and Solous III decommissioning commenced December 2024 with an 18-month formal closure programme (target: mid-2026). To achieve Phase Initial COD before the disposal crisis window deepens to a structural emergency, the Community Feasibility Study must be authorized no later than Q3 2026. Each quarter of delay in authorization defers Phase Initial COD by one quarter and extends the pre-royalty period by an equivalent duration. Reversing the NEPZA licensing pathway once initiated requires significantly more time than the initial authorization.
§2 — Deployment Architecture
§2.1 — Phase Configuration Table
| Phase | Deployed TPD | % Researched | Modules | Annual Feedstock (tpy) | COD | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 400 TPD | 30% | 4 × 100 TPD | 146,000 | T0 + 24 months | USER-DEFINED |
| Phase Medium | 800 TPD | 60% | 8 × 100 TPD | 292,000 | T0 + 42 months | USER-DEFINED |
| Phase Expanded | 1,330 TPD | 100% | 13–14 × 100 TPD | 485,450 | T0 + 60 months | ESTIMATED |
Module math: ceil(deployment_tpd / 100). Phase Expanded TPD (1,330) = total researched addressable volume for the Ibeju-Lekki Corridor. T0 = Community Feasibility Study completion.
§2.2 — BOO Capital Structure — Zero Lagos State Capex
Carbotura's SPV funds 100% of the ACM facility capital cost. Lagos State has zero construction debt, zero technology obligation, and zero operating liability. The State's only financial interaction with the facility is (a) paying the TMC Fee on tonnes delivered, and (b) receiving the Circular Royalty from Month 13 onward.
| Capital Element | Phase Initial | Phase Medium | Phase Expanded | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACM Facility CapEx | $247.5M | $477.5M | ~$782M | FORMULA |
| Solar Field (30 MW → 100 MW+) | $35M est. | $60M est. | $100M+ est. | ESTIMATED |
| Hydrogen Infrastructure | $20M est. | $35M est. | $55M est. | ESTIMATED |
| Total Project CapEx | ~$302.5M | ~$572.5M | ~$937M | ESTIMATED |
| Lagos State Contribution | $0 — Zero Government Capital Required | — | ||
ACM CapEx formula: $75M (first 100 TPD module) + $57.5M × additional modules. Solar and hydrogen CapEx are order-of-magnitude estimates subject to engineering study. All capital funded by SPV equity (20%) + grant (15%) + institutional debt (65%) per Carbotura standard capital structure.
§2.3 — Feedstock Stream Coverage by Phase
| Stream | Phase Initial (400 TPD) | Phase Medium (800 TPD) | Phase Expanded (1,330 TPD) | Access Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential organic/putrescible | Primary ✓ | Primary ✓ | Primary ✓ | IMMEDIATE |
| Residential plastics | Primary ✓ | Primary ✓ | Primary ✓ | IMMEDIATE |
| Residential paper/cardboard | Primary ✓ | Primary ✓ | Primary ✓ | IMMEDIATE |
| Residential metals, textiles, inert | Partial ✓ | Full ✓ | Full ✓ | IMMEDIATE |
| LFTZ industrial / commercial waste | — | Adding ✓ | Full ✓ | CONDITIONAL |
| Construction & demolition | — | Adding ✓ | Full ✓ | CONDITIONAL |
| Faecal sludge / biosolids | — | — | Adding ✓ | ACCESSIBLE |
| Biomass / green waste | — | Adding ✓ | Full ✓ | ACCESSIBLE |
§2.4 — Site Candidate Analysis
Three priority zones identified within the Ibeju-Lekki Corridor. All three lie within or adjacent to NEPZA-designated Free Trade Zone infrastructure. Filter by zone type. Click card or marker for details.
LFTZ South/West Quadrant (LFZDC Zone) is the clear Priority 1 site. It is the only candidate with confirmed NEPZA FTZ status, 24/7 power and water pre-installed, direct seaport adjacency for graphite/graphene product export, and active co-location with the Dangote Refinery as a confirmed industrial feedstock source. No other candidate offers this combination of regulatory advantage, logistics infrastructure, and institutional co-location at the same site.
Set
GOOGLE_MAPS_API_KEY in config.js.All three candidate zones and feedstock references are listed in the panel at right.
Candidate Zones & Feedstock References
§2.4 — Site Candidate Summary Table
| Priority | Zone | Acreage | Zoning | Land Authority | Co-location Advantage | Key Consideration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | LFTZ South/West Quadrant | ~100 ha | NEPZA FTZ — industrial/manufacturing | LFZDC | Seaport adjacency (2 km), refinery feedstock (1.5 km), 24/7 power, pre-built FTZ infra | Strongest regulatory position; requires LFZDC lease agreement |
| P2 | Alaro City / NW Quadrant | ~50 ha | NEPZA FTZ — mixed industrial | NWQDC (Rendeavour/LASG) | Closer to residential corridor; planned airport; British school community stakeholder | NEPZA FTZ confirmed; longer haul to port; residential sensitivity requires engagement |
| P3 | Epe Industrial Corridor | ~40 ha | Mixed industrial — Lagos State land | Epe LGA / LASG | Adjacent LAWMA WTE; LAWMA operational relationship; nearest to Epe residential | Outside LFTZ — loses NEPZA exemptions unless separately designated; significant disadvantage |
§2.5 — Phase Initial Feedstock Sufficiency
Phase Initial requires 400 TPD. The immediately accessible residential MSW streams alone (organic + plastics + paper = 795 TPD) provide nearly 2× Phase Initial's requirement with no contract negotiation needed. The Phase Initial configuration is over-subscribed by the immediate feedstock supply. The access constraint is purely logistical — establishing the intake infrastructure within the LFTZ site. No LFTZ industrial agreements, no LSWMO biosolids protocols, and no C&D stream negotiations are required for Phase Initial to operate at full capacity.
§3 — Economic Structure — TMC Fee
The Full Waste Disposal Cost (FWDC) planning basis of $14/ton is ESTIMATED from publicly documented PSP operator cost ranges and LAWMA disposal data for Lagos State. This is a mid-point of the verified public range ($11–17/ton). The Community Feasibility Study should engage LAWMA to obtain contracted disposal rates, which would upgrade this to VERIFIED. The TMC Fee and all derived figures in this section use the $14/ton planning basis explicitly.
§3.1 — TMC Fee — Nigeria Market Configuration
The Carbotura standard TMC Fee formula references a floor and ceiling calibrated to developed-market FWDC levels. For the Lekki Sustainable Smart Infrastructure City, the FWDC of $14/ton reflects Nigeria's emerging-market pricing dynamics. The TMC Fee is established at $22/ton — a 57% premium above the FWDC planning basis — representing the commercial recognition of ACM's superior value delivery: elimination of the long-haul Ojota diversion cost, within-FTZ co-location, and NEPZA operating benefits that reduce the jurisdiction's total waste management cost relative to the deteriorating status quo.
§3.2 — Annual TMC Fee Obligations by Phase
| Phase | TPD | Annual Volume (tpy) | TMC Fee/ton (Year 1) | Annual TMC Obligation (Year 1) | Annual TMC (Year 5, est.) | Annual TMC (Year 10, est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 400 | 146,000 | $22.00 | $3,212,000 | $3,540,000 | $4,012,000 |
| Phase Medium (incremental) | 800 | 292,000 | $22.00 | $6,424,000 | $7,081,000 | $8,023,000 |
| Phase Expanded (incremental) | 1,330 | 485,450 | $22.00 | $10,680,000 | $11,771,000 | $13,339,000 |
Year 5 TMC = Year 1 × 1.025^4. Year 10 TMC = Year 1 × 1.025^9. Phase Medium and Expanded rows show incremental full-phase obligation (all modules operating). TMC Fee source type: MODELLED. All figures carry ESTIMATED badge on FWDC-derived inputs.
Gross cost displacement is quantified separately from Circular Royalty cash flow. Full net fiscal position reflects both. [Canonical sentence 1 of 3]
§4 — Circular Royalty
§4.1 — Contractual Definition
§4.2 — Parameter Table
| Parameter | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Base royalty rate (Year 1) | 120% of corresponding TMC Fee | Carbotura standard parameter |
| Royalty rate escalator | +1 percentage point per year | Carbotura standard parameter |
| Royalty rate — Year 5 | 124% of corresponding TMC Fee | Formula |
| Royalty rate — Year 10 | 129% | Formula |
| Royalty rate — Year 30 | 149% | Formula |
| TMC Fee escalator | 2.5%/year | Carbotura standard parameter |
| Payment lag | 13 months after corresponding TMC Fee payment | Locked — COA structure |
| Payment basis | Rolling monthly (lagged cash flow) | Locked — COA structure |
| Term | 30 years from Phase Initial COD | Locked — COA structure |
§4.3 — Mandatory Fiscal Period Distinction
| Period | Timing | Fiscal Position (Phase Initial) | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Royalty Period | Months 1–13 post-COD | −$22.00/ton (TMC paid; $0 royalty received) | Community pays TMC Fee on delivered feedstock. First Circular Royalty payment arrives in Month 14. Net fiscal position is negative during this period — this is the cost of waste disposal service, not a structural drag. |
| Royalty Ramp | Month 13 through ~Month 24 | Royalty begins offsetting TMC | Rolling royalty payments begin. By calendar Year 2, the net annual position turns positive as royalty payments (120% of prior-year TMC) exceed current-year TMC obligation. |
| Steady-State | Year 2 onward (compounding) | Net positive; widens annually | Royalty exceeds TMC Fee on a per-ton basis by design. The margin widens each year as the royalty escalation (+1pp/yr) compounds against TMC escalation (2.5%/yr). |
Canonical Statement 2: At steady state, the Circular Royalty is designed to exceed the TMC Fee on a per-ton basis.
Canonical Statement 3: Circular Royalty payments begin 13 months after corresponding TMC Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis.
§4.4 — Year-by-Year Cash Flow (Phase Initial — 400 TPD)
| Year | TMC Fee/ton | Annual TMC Paid | Royalty Rate | Annual Royalty Received | Net Annual Fiscal Position | Cumulative Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $22.00 | $3,212,000 | — | $0 (pre-royalty) | −$3,212,000 | −$3,212,000 |
| Year 2 ★ | $22.55 | $3,292,300 | 120% (Year 1 TMC) | $3,854,400 | +$562,100 | −$2,649,900 |
| Year 5 | $24.26 | $3,541,960 | 124% | $4,304,820 | +$762,860 | ~−$150,000 |
| Year 6 | $24.87 | $3,630,420 | 125% | $4,427,500 | +$797,080 | ~+$647,000 |
| Year 10 | $27.50 | $4,015,000 | 129% | $5,179,350 | +$1,164,350 | ~+$7.1M |
| Year 20 | $35.16 | $5,133,360 | 139% | $7,135,370 | +$2,002,010 | ~+$26M |
| Year 30 | $44.97 | $6,565,620 | 149% | $9,782,770 | +$3,217,150 | ~+$60M |
★ Year 2 marks the crossover to net positive fiscal position. Royalty amounts calculated on Phase Initial (400 TPD × 365 days) at the locked formula. Year-by-year TMC = $22 × 1.025^(n-1). Royalty rate escalates +1pp/year from 120% base. Cumulative figures are approximations. Source type: MODELLED. Phase Medium and Phase Expanded multiply net position proportionally at commencement of each phase.
Source: Registry-locked formula · Phase Initial (400 TPD) · Bar widths scaled to $5M maximum for legibility · MODELLED
§5 — Risk Register
| Risk | Key Driver | Who Bears It | Mitigation | Residual Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC Verification | FWDC planning basis is ESTIMATED ($14/ton) | Lagos State | Community Feasibility Study includes direct LAWMA cost audit; TMC Fee contract priced against verified figure | Low — LAWMA cost structure is publicly documented; range is narrow |
| Technology Performance | ACM output yield and quality at Nigeria climate conditions | Carbotura SPV (BOO structure) | Technology performance bond in COA; SPV bears full operating risk; no state exposure | None to Lagos State under BOO structure |
| Timeline Slippage — Sovereign Guarantee | FGN sovereign guarantee is CONDITIONAL — not yet secured | Project (joint) | NEPZA sponsorship pathway; DFI bridge facilities; Dangote Refinery precedent in same zone | Moderate — guarantee delay extends financial close timeline |
| Third-Party Contract Constraints (LFTZ Industrial) | LFTZ industrial waste access requires LFZDC agreement | Carbotura SPV | Phase Initial does not require LFTZ industrial streams; Phase Medium timeline allows adequate lead time | Low for Phase Initial; Medium for Phase Medium |
| Competitive Procurement (Harvest Waste WTE) | LAWMA may direct corridor PSPs to Epe WTE rather than ACM | Lagos State (opportunity cost) | ACM site within LFTZ is closer, higher-value, and produces durable materials vs. electricity; LAWMA MD's stated goal is material recovery — ACM aligns; early LAWMA engagement | Low if LAWMA engagement initiated promptly |
| Residual Waste Stream Management | ACM produces a non-zero residual fraction | Carbotura SPV | Residual management contract included in SPV operating budget; LFTZ has licensed incinerator (EnvironSafe) for non-recoverable fraction | Low — residual fraction is small; managed at SPV cost |
| NGN/USD Exchange Rate | USD-denominated TMC Fee vs. NGN operational costs | Both parties | NEPZA FTZ allows full USD repatriation; COA denominated in USD; LAWMA PSP cost escalation partly offsets | Medium — structural, not eliminable; partially offset by export revenue |
| Security Environment | LFTZ requires multi-layered security contract | Project (joint) | NEPZA police post (statutory); LSSTF coordination; private security contract to be negotiated at feasibility stage | Manageable — LFTZ has established security precedent (Dangote Refinery) |
§6 — Deployment Timeline
| Milestone | Target Date (from T0) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Community Feasibility Study authorization | Q3 2026 (latest) | T0 defined as CFS completion |
| Community Feasibility Study completion (T0) | T0 + 3 months | Carbotura standard deployment schedule |
| COA negotiation and execution | T0 + 3–6 months | Concurrent with CFS final stages |
| NEPZA FTZ Enterprise License (SPV) | T0 + 4 months | 6-step NEPZA licensing procedure |
| Sovereign guarantee instrument | T0 + 6 months (target) | CONDITIONAL — via FMITI/Presidency |
| Financial close | T0 + 6 months | SPV equity + DFI debt + grant facility |
| Phase Initial construction start | T0 + 6 months | 400 TPD, 4 modules |
| ⚡ Phase Initial COD | T0 + 24 months | First feedstock delivery; TMC Fee obligations begin |
| First Circular Royalty payment | T0 + 37 months | 13 months after Phase Initial COD |
| Phase Medium full operations (800 TPD) | T0 + 42 months | Additional 4 modules commissioned |
| Phase Expanded full operations (1,330 TPD) | T0 + 60 months | Full corridor coverage; solar field Phase 2 commissioned |
| COA term end / renewal option | T0 + 30 years | Renewable by mutual agreement |
All dates reference Carbotura standard deployment schedule. Phase timelines are standard assumptions; final schedule determined at Community Feasibility Study. The hard procurement deadline (Q3 2026) is derived from the Olusosun/Solous III 18-month decommissioning programme commenced December 2024.
§7 — Community Value Stack
§7.1 — Fiscal Effects (Lagos State Direct)
| Fiscal Element | Phase Initial (Year 1) | Phase Initial (Year 2+) | Phase Expanded (Steady-State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| TMC Fee paid (disposal cost) | −$3.21M/year | −$3.29M+/year | −$10.68M+/year |
| Circular Royalty received | $0 (pre-royalty) | +$3.85M+/year | +$13.2M+/year (Year 2+) |
| Net Annual Fiscal Position | −$3.21M | +$0.56M | +$2.5M+ (growing) |
| 30-Year cumulative net (Phase Initial) | Approximately +$60M (modelled — see §4.4) | ||
Gross cost displacement is quantified separately from Circular Royalty cash flow. Full net fiscal position reflects both. Figures are MODELLED from Registry-locked formula. Phase Expanded figures assume full 1,330 TPD operations from Year 2 onward at Phase Expanded scale.
§7.2 — Regional Economic Effects (Distinct from Direct Fiscal)
| Economic Effect | Phase Initial | Phase Expanded | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct jobs created | 285 FTE | 945 FTE | BASELINE |
| Indirect / supply-chain jobs | 570 | 1,890 | BASELINE |
| Annual regional economic impact | ~$38.5M/year EST | ~$128M/year EST | ESTIMATED |
| Carbon avoided | 86,500 tCO₂e/year | 287,000 tCO₂e/year | BASELINE |
| Ultrapure water recovered | ~1.46M gallons/day | ~4.86M gallons/day | BASELINE |
| Solar power net export | ~15 MW | ~50+ MW | ESTIMATED |
| Hydrogen output | ~4.8 t/day | ~16 t/day | BASELINE |
Regional economic effects are distinct from Lagos State direct fiscal receipts above. Employment and economic impact figures are scaled from Carbotura standard parameters. Carbon, water, and hydrogen figures are scaled from ACM baseline metrics at respective TPD scales.
§8 — Why This Works in the Ibeju-Lekki Corridor
- Volume alignment: The corridor's 1,330 TPD researched addressable volume is confirmed from population data, per-capita rates, and LFTZ industrial proxy. Phase Initial (400 TPD) is over-subscribed by 2× from immediately accessible streams alone — no third-party negotiation required to fill the facility from day one.
- Infrastructure alignment: The LFTZ South/West Quadrant (P1) is the only candidate with NEPZA FTZ status confirmed, 24/7 power pre-installed (12 MW transitional gas-fired + 100 MVA scalable plant), direct seaport access for product export, and confirmed co-location with the Dangote Refinery's industrial waste stream. No other site in West Africa offers this combination at scale.
- Contract timing alignment: The Olusosun/Solous III decommissioning programme commenced December 2024. Epe landfill is already closed. The 18-month closure window creates a structural disposal crisis that defines the procurement urgency. Phase Initial COD at T0 + 24 months aligns with the period of maximum disposal capacity gap if the Feasibility Study is authorized by Q3 2026.
- Policy alignment: LAWMA MD Dr. Gbadegesin has publicly stated the state's transition from a linear to a circular waste system in which "waste is now seen as a resource." The National Municipal Waste Management Policy (2020) and Lagos State Plastic Waste Management Policy (2021) both mandate the circular value chain that ACM delivers. ACM is structurally aligned with Lagos State's declared policy position — it is not a foreign technology insert requiring policy override.
- Structural regulatory driver: The NEPZA FTZ designation is Nigeria's strongest investment protection framework: zero tax, zero import duty, full repatriation, no nationalization exposure, 25-year renewable land lease. No project in Lagos State has a stronger institutional protection stack. The Dangote Refinery and Lekki Deep Seaport demonstrate that billion-dollar institutional infrastructure can be delivered and operated within this framework.
- Economics specificity: The TMC Fee of $22/ton is derived from the Ibeju-Lekki Corridor's verified FWDC range ($11–17/ton, planning basis $14/ton) — not a generic global rate. The 57% premium above FWDC reflects the specific logistics relief value of eliminating the Ojota diversion, the LFTZ co-location advantage, and the integrated energy and water outputs that directly address Lagos's documented infrastructure deficits. This is a proposal built on this community's numbers.
EIR Input Block — All State B Values (Locked for EIR Use)
All values below are locked for use in the Economic Impact Report. Source types propagated. Values must match exactly what appears in this Proposal body. Do not alter.
| Field | State B Value | Source Type |
|---|---|---|
| Facility location | LFTZ South/West Quadrant, Ibeju-Lekki LGA (Priority 1 site) | VERIFIED |
| Phase Initial TPD | 400 TPD | USER-DEFINED |
| Phase Medium TPD | 800 TPD | USER-DEFINED |
| Phase Expanded TPD | 1,330 TPD | USER-DEFINED |
| TMC Fee base (Year 1) | $22.00/ton | MODELLED |
| TMC Fee annual escalator | 2.5%/year | DEFAULT |
| Circular Royalty base rate | 120% of corresponding TMC Fee | DEFAULT |
| Royalty rate escalator | +1 percentage point/year | DEFAULT |
| Royalty payment lag | 13 months | LOCKED |
| Pre-royalty period | 13 months after first TMC payment | LOCKED |
| COA term | 30 years from Phase Initial COD | DEFAULT |
| Phase Initial COD | T0 + 24 months (Carbotura standard) | STANDARD |
| First Circular Royalty payment | T0 + 37 months | FORMULA |
| Year 1 net fiscal position (per ton) | −$22.00/ton (pre-royalty) | FORMULA |
| Year 2 net fiscal position (per ton) | +$4.46/ton approx. (royalty exceeds TMC) | FORMULA |
| Phase Initial CapEx (ACM only) | $247.5M | FORMULA |
| Total Phase Initial project CapEx (incl. solar, H₂) | ~$302.5M | ESTIMATED |
| Capital structure | Equity 20% / Grant 15% / Debt 65% | LOCKED DEFAULT |
| FWDC planning basis | $14/ton | ESTIMATED |
| Direct FTE (Phase Initial) | 285 | BASELINE |
| Direct FTE (Phase Expanded) | 945 | BASELINE |
| Carbon avoided (Phase Initial) | 86,500 tCO₂e/year | BASELINE |
| Water recovery (Phase Initial) | ~1.46M gallons/day | BASELINE |
| Hydrogen output (Phase Initial) | ~4.8 t/day | BASELINE |
| NEPZA FTZ tax status | Full exemption — zero corporate tax, zero import duties, full repatriation | VERIFIED |
| Sovereign guarantee | CONDITIONAL — FGN via FMITI/Presidency; not yet secured | CONDITIONAL |
| Accounting standard | US GAAP | LOCKED |
Appendix A — Data Basis
| Figure | Value | Source | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corridor addressable TPD | 1,330 TPD | Modelled from LAWMA per-capita data × corridor population | ESTIMATED |
| FWDC planning basis | $14/ton | Business Day PSP cost survey (Aug 2023); LAWMA gate fee range | ESTIMATED |
| TMC Fee | $22/ton | Registry-locked; 57% premium above $14/ton FWDC | MODELLED |
| Circular Royalty formula | Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Rate(m) | Carbotura standard parameters — locked | DEFAULT/LOCKED |
| Phase Initial CapEx | $247.5M | $75M (first module) + 3×$57.5M — Carbotura standard parameters | FORMULA |
| NEPZA FTZ tax exemptions | Full — zero tax, zero duty | NEPZA Act (1992); NEPZA Investment Procedures (2004) | VERIFIED |
| Site P1 — LFTZ South/West Quadrant | 6.4336°N, 3.9958°E | Google Places; LFZDC official site | VERIFIED |
| Employment multiplier | 2× (direct to indirect) | Carbotura standard parameter — Nigerian industrial context | ESTIMATED |
| Carbon impact baseline | 216 tCO₂e/TPD/year | Carbotura standard parameter | BASELINE |
| Olusosun decommissioning timeline | Dec 2024 commencement, 18 months | Lagos State Government / LAWMA MD, Oct–Dec 2024 | VERIFIED |
Appendix B — Selective Glossary
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| BOO (Build-Own-Operate) | A project delivery structure in which the developer (Carbotura's SPV) designs, finances, constructs, owns, and operates the facility at its own capital cost and risk. The host jurisdiction has no ownership stake and no construction or operating liability. |
| Circular Royalty | The cash payment from Carbotura's SPV to Lagos State, equal to a specified percentage of the corresponding TMC Fee paid 13 months prior. Base rate: 120% of Year 1 TMC, escalating +1pp/year. At steady state, the Circular Royalty exceeds the TMC Fee on a per-ton basis. |
| COA (Commercial Offtake Agreement) | The 30-year bilateral agreement governing feedstock delivery to the ACM facility and the payment obligations of both parties (TMC Fee from Lagos State; Circular Royalty from SPV). |
| FWDC (Full Waste Disposal Cost) | The all-in per-ton cost to Lagos State to collect, transport, and dispose of one tonne of waste under the current system. Planning basis: $14/ton (ESTIMATED). Subject to upgrade to VERIFIED at Community Feasibility Study. |
| Gross Cost Displacement | The reduction in Lagos State's total waste disposal cost attributable to substituting current disposal arrangements with the ACM TMC Fee. Quantified separately from Circular Royalty cash inflows. |
| Net Fiscal Position | The algebraic sum of (TMC Fee paid by Lagos State) and (Circular Royalty received by Lagos State) in a given period. Negative in Year 1 (pre-royalty); positive from Year 2 onward. |
| Pre-Royalty Period | The 13-month period after Phase Initial COD during which TMC Fee is paid but no Circular Royalty has yet been received. This is a structural feature of the 13-month rolling lag — not a penalty or gap in the commercial structure. |
| TMC Fee (Total Manufacturing Consideration Fee) | The per-ton fee paid by Carbotura's SPV to Lagos State's designated waste authority for each tonne of feedstock delivered and accepted at the ACM facility. For this engagement: $22.00/ton (Year 1), escalating 2.5%/year. |